Event ETF · Inception 2026-07-22 · v1
U.S.–Iran Conflict 2026 Fund
One claim decides this vintage: U.S. forces invade Iran (sustained ground operations) before 2027.
- A share now
- ≈25.9¢, the share's value marked against the live book
- If it happens
- every share pays up to $1.96 · 7.6× at today's price
- If it doesn't
- shares settle at $0. The other side pays Gulf De-escalation Fund
- After it settles
- the fund rolls into its next vintage. New claims join the book as markets list, so the payout table above is this vintage's, not the fund's ceiling
Performance · total return, from the fund's NAV series
Performance history
The fund's net asset value, daily
›Methodology
Net asset value is calculated from the underlying markets' daily closing prices, weighted by the fund's portfolio, and shown as percentage change from the start of the price record. Each market enters the calculation at its first traded daily close; untraded listing placeholders are excluded. Markets added to the portfolio are funded as new capital; an addition never changes the series, and the change between any two dates equals an investor's return over that period.
Allocation
Portfolio weights by current market value
20.2¢
per share
today · 8 markets
Weights are position size × last daily close, normalized. Colors match the constituents chart below.
Constituents
Daily closing prices of the 8 underlying markets. Search, or select any market for details.
›Methodology
Each series is one underlying market's daily closing price, in cents; a claim settles at 100¢ if it occurs and 0¢ otherwise. Ringed markers indicate the date a market was added to the portfolio; each legend chip carries the market's share of the portfolio at cost.
Liquidity
Capacity and structure of the underlying markets
Fund economics
How fees, the cash buffer, and redemption work
Cash buffer. The buffer covers short-term redemptions and sits in low-risk instruments for a passive base yield, currently around 3.7% via the Sky Savings Rate.
Execution. Fees are paid to Polymarket, the current settlement provider. The fund's tooling targets maker rebates: it makes the market where possible and pays lower fees. Those rebates flow back into the ETF, which lowers trading costs for holders.
Collateral. The fund share is a standard ERC-20, usable as collateral on venues like Morpho, Aave, or Uniswap. Redemption is at the published unit price, subject to the fund's underlying value.
Analysis
Hypothetical reference constructions, for comparison only
›Methodology
The equal-weighted basket is a hypothetical reference: an equal dollar amount in each underlying market at its first traded daily close, held without rebalancing, under the same calculation rules as the fund's net asset value. Removing the portfolio's weights isolates the breadth of the underlying thesis; the spread against the net asset value shows the contribution of position sizing. The basket is not an investable share class.
Holdings
Schedule of investments · daily closes 2025-11-05 → 2026-10-05. Select a holding for details
| Market | Units | At build | Last | Δ | Liquidity | Ends | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes | 1.00 | 32¢ | 16¢ | -51% | $998,443 | 2027-01-01 | |
 Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes | 0.36 | 6¢ | 3¢ | -44% | $70,682 | 2027-01-01 | |
 Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Yes | 0.09 | 21¢ | 0¢ | -100% | $0 | 2026-07-31 | |
 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Yes | 0.06 | 32¢ | 0¢ | -99% | $0 | 2026-10-01 | |
 Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Yes | 0.14 | 14¢ | 11¢ | -22% | $35,141 | 2027-01-01 | |
 Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes | 0.04 | 55¢ | 0¢ | -100% | $0 | 2026-09-01 | |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | 0.19 | 11¢ | 7¢ | -38% | $591,148 | 2027-01-01 | |
 Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes | 0.09 | 23¢ | 9¢ | -60% | $14,183 | 2027-01-01 |